

InterviewSolution
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The odds against a husband who is 60 years old, living till he is 85 are 7 : 5. The odds against his wife who is now 56, living till she is 81 are 5 : 3. Find the probability that (i) at least one of them will be alive 25 years hence. (ii) exactly one of them will be alive 25 years hence. |
Answer» The odds against her husband living till he is 85 are 7 : 5. Let P(H’) = P(husband dies before he is 85) = 7/7+5 = 7/12 So, the probability that the husband would be alive till age 85 P(H) = 1 – P(H’) = 1 – 7/12 = 5/12 Similarly, P(W’) = P(Wife dies before she is 81) Since the odds against wife will be alive till she is 81 are 5 : 3. ∴ P(W’) = 5/5+3 = 5/8 So, the probability that the wife would be alive till age 81 P(W) = 1 – P(W’) = 1 – 5/8 = 3/8 (i) Required probability P(H ∪ W) = P(H) + P(W) – P(H ∩ W) Since H and W are independent events, P(H ∩ W) = P(H) . P(W) ∴ Required probability = P(H) + P(W) – P(H) . P(W) = \(\frac {5}{12} + \frac {3}{8} -\frac{5}{12}\times\frac{3}{8}\) = 40+36-15/96 = 61/96 (ii) Required probability = P(H ∩ W’) + P(H’ ∩ W) Since H and W are independent events, H’ and W’ are also independent events. ∴ Required probability = P(H) . P(W’) + P(H’) . P(W) = \(\frac {5}{12} + \frac {5}{8}+\frac{7}{12}\times\frac{3}{8}\) = 25+21/96 46/96 = 23/48 |
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