1.

The odds against a husband who is 60 years old, living till he is 85 are 7 : 5. The odds against his wife who is now 56, living till she is 81 are 5 : 3. Find the probability that (i) at least one of them will be alive 25 years hence. (ii) exactly one of them will be alive 25 years hence.

Answer»

The odds against her husband living till he is 85 are 7 : 5. 

Let P(H’) = P(husband dies before he is 85) = 7/7+5 = 7/12

So, the probability that the husband would be alive till age 85 

P(H) = 1 – P(H’) = 1 – 7/12 = 5/12

Similarly, P(W’) = P(Wife dies before she is 81) 

Since the odds against wife will be alive till she is 81 are 5 : 3.

∴ P(W’) = 5/5+3 = 5/8

So, the probability that the wife would be alive till age 81 

P(W) = 1 – P(W’) = 1 – 5/8 = 3/8

(i) Required probability 

P(H ∪ W) = P(H) + P(W) – P(H ∩ W) 

Since H and W are independent events, P(H ∩ W) = P(H) . P(W) 

∴ Required probability = P(H) + P(W) – P(H) . P(W)

\(\frac {5}{12} + \frac {3}{8} -\frac{5}{12}\times\frac{3}{8}\)

= 40+36-15/96

= 61/96

(ii) Required probability = P(H ∩ W’) + P(H’ ∩ W) 

Since H and W are independent events, H’ and W’ are also independent events. 

∴ Required probability = P(H) . P(W’) + P(H’) . P(W)

\(\frac {5}{12} + \frac {5}{8}+\frac{7}{12}\times\frac{3}{8}\)

= 25+21/96

46/96

= 23/48



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