Sometimes FORECASTS affect the thing being forecast. For example, a publicly announced prediction of shortages may cause people to stockpile, THEREBY ensuring a shortage. ALTERNATIVELY a forecast of reduced sales in the September quarter may lead a manufacturer to RUN a PROMOTIONAL campaign to increase sales. In situations like these, you need to rely on evidence from academic research to determine whether your forecasting process is a good one. To find out whether this is so, you can conduct an audit.

Sometimes forecasts affect the thing being forecast. For example, a publicly announced prediction of shortages may cause people to stockpile, thereby ensuring a shortage. Alternatively a forecast of reduced sales in the September quarter may lead a manufacturer to run a promotional campaign to increase sales. In situations like these, you need to rely on evidence from academic research to determine whether your forecasting process is a good one. To find out whether this is so, you can conduct an audit.