InterviewSolution
Saved Bookmarks
InterviewSolution
| 1. |
Of What Value Are Forecasts That Try To Predict The Discovery And Impact Of Future Technologies? |
|
Answer» Forecasting the FUTURE of technology is a dangerous enterprise. Schnaars (1989) examined hundreds of technology forecasts. He found that there is a myopia, even among EXPERTS, that causes them to FOCUS upon the future in terms of present conditions. Cerf and Navasky (1998) gave interesting examples of errors in expert judgments about the future of technology. Perhaps the most famous is the 1899 call by the US COMMISSIONER of Patents to abolish the Patent Office on the grounds that there was nothing left to invent. Forecasting the future of technology is a dangerous enterprise. Schnaars (1989) examined hundreds of technology forecasts. He found that there is a myopia, even among experts, that causes them to focus upon the future in terms of present conditions. Cerf and Navasky (1998) gave interesting examples of errors in expert judgments about the future of technology. Perhaps the most famous is the 1899 call by the US Commissioner of Patents to abolish the Patent Office on the grounds that there was nothing left to invent. |
|