Answer» Correct Answer - Option 2 : Uncertainty
The correct answer is Uncertainty.
- As against using established rules in reasoning, the decision-making process involves Uncertainty.
- When there is no knowledge about the probabilities of the various states of nature, it is a decision under uncertainty.
- In such situation, future events or situation remains unknown.
- It makes the decision-making process more complex.
- It is very difficult to calculate the expected values of various alternatives.
- It can't be measured in quantitative terms.
- Its outcomes are unknown.
- Decision-making is the process of choosing from various alternatives to solve a given problem.
- Decision-making is an important part of any organization.
- The right decision can bring profitability to the organization.
- A wrong decision can affect the goodwill of the organization.
- Every decision impacts the organization and its employee for a long term.
- There are four types of circumstances in which decisions are taken:
- Decision under certainty
- Decision under risk
- Decision under conflict
- Decision under uncertainty
- The decision under risk:
- When a decision is based on incomplete but reliable information, it is a decision at risk.
- It can be measured in quantitative terms.
- The potential outcomes are known here.
- It can be controlled if a proper measure is taken by the organization.
- It can be easily be minimized by taking the necessary steps.
- The decision under certainty:
- The condition of certainty prevails when there is no doubt about the factual basis of a particular decision.
- It is the simplest form of decision-making.
- There is the complete information regarding the outcome of each alternative.
- If the number of alternatives is small then the outcomes can be compared with each other.
- If the number of alternatives is large then mathematical tools like linear programming and deterministic inventory models can be used.
- For instance, the decision is made to buy a car. Once this decision is made, there are many alternatives available to buy a car of which company.
- It is possible to calculate the total cost of each of these alternatives and choose the one which gives the lowest cost.
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